A SUBTLE CHANGE IN MARKET TONE LAST WEEK | OUTLOOK FOR THE DAYS AHEAD

INDIAMARKETS: LAST WEEK’S CALM AND THIS WEEK’S KEY WATCH (DEC 8–19, 2025)

A steady week for Indian stocks with local buyers holding firm, while this week brings important wholesale price data that could hint at future loan rates.

QUICK TAKE

• INDICES MILD DECLINE: For the week, the Nifty50 fell 139.50 points, or 0.53%, to close at 26,046, while the BSE Sensex declined 445 points to settle at 85,268. Domestic buying kept things from falling much, shaping the base for stock market projections this week.

• METALS SHONE BRIGHT: Sectors like metals gained as money moved there, while some bank and mid-size stocks lagged due to foreign selling,influencing near-term weekly stock predictions.

• LOCAL FUNDS SAVED THE DAY: Foreign investors sold ~₹9,202 crore, but Indian institutions bought ~₹20,185 crore – more than double! This cushioned the market.

LAST WEEK (DEC 8–12, 2025)

The market did not swing wildly. Nifty 50 closed at 26,046 points (up 0.57% on Friday alone) and Sensex at 85,268 points (up 0.53% Friday). Overall weekly change was small– nearly flat after early dips, setting the tone for stock market predictions next week.

WINNERS:

• Metals (example: Tata Steel up 3.38%) – buyers liked commodity-linked companies.

• Industrials – steady demand helped.

LOSERS:

• PSU banks – hit by foreign selling.

• Mid and small caps – more pressure from outflows.

FLOWS (who bought/sold shares):

DAY/METRIC               FII NET (₹ CRORE)               DII NET (₹ CRORE)

Weekly Total                        -9,202                +20,185

Takeaway: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are big overseas funds. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) are local ones, like mutual funds. Local buying absorbed the selling. Commodities & FX (foreign exchange):

• Brent crude oil: ~$61.46 per barrel – low prices help keep petrol/diesel costs down for India.

• Gold: ~$4,170–4,346 per ounce – high as people see it as safe during uncertainty.

• Silver: ~$62-$65 per ounce – also strong for similar reasons.

• USD/INR: ~90.56–90.58 – weaker rupee makes imports costlier but helps exporters.

POLICY CONTEXT: RBI repo rate (the rate at which RBI lends to banks) stands at 5.25% after a recent cut. This makes loans cheaper over time.

WHY IT MATTERS (FOR EVERYDAY INVESTORS)

• STABLE MARKET WITH LOCAL SUPPORT → Your mutual funds (often DIIs) helped keep large companies steady – good for long-term savings.

• LOW OIL PRICES → Less pressure on petrol, diesel, and transport costs – easier on monthly budgets and EMIs.

• HIGH GOLD/SILVER → Good if you hold them, but shows some global worry – people buy gold when unsure.

• WEAKER RUPEE → Imported goods (phones, fuel) cost more, but can help Indian exporters create jobs.

THIS WEEK’S WATCHLIST (DEC 15–19, 2025)

The holiday season means fewer traders – small news can cause bigger moves (called thin liquidity).

• MONDAY, DEC 15, 2025: India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for November month (expected mild). Why it matters: Primary domestic trigger; shows factory-level price changes and influences rate cut expectations. What to watch: Banks, autos, and realty sectors.

• TUESDAY, DEC 16, 2025: Daily Institutional Flows (FII/DII). Why it matters: See if local buying continues. What to watch: Evening FII/DII numbers.

• WEDNESDAY, DEC 17, 2025: SEBI Board Meeting. Why it matters: Discussions on regulatory changes (e.g., total expense ratio, FPI participation) could have sector-specific impact. What to watch: Financials (Banks, NBFCs), Market flows.

• THURSDAY, DEC 18, 2025: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation (Nov) & ECB/BoE Decisions. Why it matters: The highest-impact event for the week; inflation steers global interest rate path. Simultaneous Central Bank decisions in Europe. What to watch: Global Liquidity, IT, Pharma, USD/INR, GBP/INR.

• FRIDAY, DEC 19, 2025: Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Decision. Why it matters: Potential shift in ultra-easy monetary policy could impact global bond yields. What to watch: Global Bond Market, Foreign flows (FIIs), Japan-exposed stocks.

SCENARIOS: BULL VS. BEAR (NEAR TERM)

BULL CASE (MARKET COULD RISE):

• Soft WPI data → Keeps rate-cut hopes alive → Cheaper loans boost autos/realty/banks.

• Strong DII buying continues → Supports large caps → Nifty holds above 26,000.

• Low oil stays → Eases inflation → More room for RBI easing.

BEAR CASE (MARKET COULD FALL):

• Renewed FII selling → Drains money → Hurts mid/small caps.

• Rupee weakens more → Raises import costs → Worries about inflation.

• Thin trading amplifies dips → Quick falls if sentiment turns.

LEVELS TO WATCH: Nifty support at 25,900–26,000 (buyers often step in here to stop falls). Resistance at 26,200 (hard to cross without strong buying). Support means a price floor where buying picks up; resistance is a ceiling.

SECTORS TO WATCH

• METALS & INDUSTRIALS: Positive flow from last week; watch if it continues.

• BANKS & LARGE CAPS: Helped by local funds.

• AUTOS & REALTY: Could gain if WPI soft (rate-sensitive means they benefit from lower rates).

MINI GLOSSARY

• FII: Foreign Institutional Investors – big funds from abroad buying Indian shares.

• DII: Domestic Institutional Investors – Indian funds like mutual funds.

• WPI: Wholesale Price Index – measures price changes at the factory level.

• REPO RATE: RBI's main lending rate to banks – lower means cheaper loans.

• RANGE-BOUND: Market moving sideways, not big up or down.

• SUPPORT/RESISTANCE: Price levels where buying (support) or selling (resistance) often happens.

• SAFE-HAVEN: Assets like gold bought during worry times.

MARKET DASHBOARD – ALL THE KEY STATS IN ONE SPOT!

• Nifty 50 closed at 26,046.95 points on Dec 12, 2025.

• Sensex finished the week at 85,267.66 points on the same day.

• Foreign investors (FII) sold a total of ₹9,202 crore in the cash market during the week ending Dec 12.

• Domestic investors (DII) stepped in strongly, buying ₹20,185 crore in the same period, helping to balance the market.

• Brent crude oil was trading around $61 per barrel on the morning of Dec 15.

• Gold was priced between $4,302 and $4,343 per ounce on Dec 15 morning, showing continued demand for safe-haven assets.

• Silver was trading near $62 per ounce on the same day.

• The USD/INR exchange rate was roughly 90.56–90.58, reflecting a slightly weaker rupee.

• The RBI repo rate was set at 5.25% in the December 2025 policy, supporting lower borrowing costs in the economy.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Last week looked calm, but a lot was happening quietly. Indian investors stepped in and bought more than the foreign investors sold, keeping big stocks steady. Commodities like gold and oil, and the RBI’s rate cut, also set the tone.

For this week (Dec 15–19), expect the market to move in a narrow range. Key things to watch are:

• WPI data on Monday, which shows factory-level prices and could affect loans.

• Daily flows from domestic and foreign investors.

• Holiday-thinned trading, which can make small moves look bigger.

Domestic investors are keeping the market steady. If WPI stays soft and oil prices stay low, banks, real estate, and auto stocks could see some support. Mid and small caps may feel more pressure if foreign selling continues.

BOTTOM LINE: The market is stable but quiet. Watch flows, sector moves, and global cues. Use this time to observe and plan, not panic.

‍